IT may not be the end of the worst drought on record but, for wide tracts of inland Australia, it was a start.

A large weather system in the Indian Ocean has produced substantial rain in four southern mainland states in the past week, raising the spirits of embattled farming communities.

Although significantly short of the deluge needed to declare the drought over, areas of southern and western NSW received up to 25mm of rain in 24 hours yesterday, with similar falls in northwestern Victoria.

South Australia recorded falls of up to 60mm in some areas, while a light sprinkling of moisture across southern Queensland failed to ease the escalating water crisis. The West Australian wheatbelt remained largely dry, as did the Northern Territory as it entered normal winter conditions.

The latest rain — coming just days after John Howard threatened to turn off irrigators’ taps in the Murray-Darling Basin if decent falls were not recorded in the next two months — is expected to ease today.

But more is predicted over southern Australia next week as a second frontal system moves over Western Australia and on into Victoria. National climate forecasters say the rain could mark the start of a predicted return to average weather conditions over southern Australia in the next three months and beyond. This could herald a $6 billion recovery in the agricultural industry, which has suffered five years of poor rainfall.

“The key factor of El Nino has ended,” said Blair Trewin, of the National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology, referring to the drought-causing weather phenomenon. “It could be that in six months’ time, we identify late April as the beginning of the end of the drought.”

Small businessman David Whitcher, near Stawell in Victoria, said yesterday’s downpour was the area’s first substantial rain this year. “At Christmas time, we got some good rain and everything greened up nicely for a few weeks,” Mr Whitcher said.

“After that, it went backwards and everything has been looking very sad and dry. Until today, we’ve only had about 5mm all year. But today has been great, I reckon we’ve had about 20mm.”

The encouraging rains in South Australia and the western parts of Victoria and NSW came as the $10billion federal takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin appeared to move closer, with key concessions from the Howard Government and Victoria. Federal Environment and Water Resources Minister Malcolm Turnbull abandoned his quest to seize all powers from the states and has agreed to specify exactly what the commonwealth wants to control.

Victorian Premier Steve Bracks told The Weekend Australian yesterday that if Mr Turnbull confined his demands to the power to fix irrigation over-entitlements and deciding the overall cap on water use, Victoria could support the plan. The concessions from both sides, and productive talks between the Prime Minister and the previously

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hostile Victorian Farmers Federation yesterday, have substantially boosted the prospects of agreement over control of the nation’s main river system.

Mr Howard said last week all water allocations for Murray- Darling irrigators would be cut to zero, in an effort to stop cities and towns running dry, without “substantial” rain in the next six to eight weeks.

Based on the weather bureau’s predictions for May, June and July, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics is forecasting a 20 per cent improvement in total farm production next financial year, from $33.8 billion to $40.1billion.

The timing of the current rains is crucial, offering the prospect of late growth in lower-altitude grazing country and a successful winter grains crop.

If the bureau’s forecasts come true and the rains are sustained in coming weeks, they could also improve storage levels in the Murray-Darling river system, though it would take many months of heavy rainfall to return it to normal levels.

Col Thomson, a citrus grower from Mildura, on the NSW-Victoria border, said the 24mm of rain that fell on the town yesterday had come at just the right time for the community’s drought-stricken farmers.

“We just hope it continues. I hope this is the beginning of the break in the drought,” he said.

Meteorologists cautioned that the rains of this weekend would not alone break the drought. Don White, from the private consultancy Weatherwatch, said the rain would give growers optimism. But to fill dams and rivers, falls of 150mm to 200mm were needed over a month. The bureau predicts this is a likely outcome.

“The odds are leaning slightly towards above normal rainfall,” Mr Trewin said. “For Victoria, South Australia and NSW, we are forecasting a 50 to 55 per cent chance of above average rainfall.

“In northern NSW and southern Queensland, we are predicting a 60 to 65 per cent chance above.”

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Gross value of farm production

$bn ….. 2005-06 … 2006-07 .. Forecast 2007-08

Meat ….. 12 ……….. 11.6 …….. 12.5

Wheat … 5.7 ………. 2.6 ………. 5.8

Dairy ….. 3.3 ………. 3 …………. 3.1

Wool ….. 2 …………. 4 ………… 3.9

Other ….. 14.9 …….. 12.6 …….. 14.8

Total …… 37.9 …….. 33.8 …….. 40.1

Sources: Australian Bureau of Meteorology, ABARE

— The chart “NATURE AT WORK – Australian rainfall analysis April 1-27”, that accompanies this article cannot be reproduced in plain-text format – please see the PDF of the page for details