“This is a tough one. This is maybe the worst I’ve ever seen,” says Ron Frasch, president and chief merchandising officer of the up-market US department store chain Saks. “Everybody is in a struggle right now. It’s a very, very difficult moment.”

“Honestly, we don’t know,” he says. “It’s all a big guessing game, obviously.” He predicts large, established brands will ride out theeconomic storm, but younger designers may not survive.

While [Fernando Frisoni] says he has not tweaked his designs for overseas markets — “it’s more likely to be the other way around, that I would change the designs for the Australian market” — Brisbane label Easton Pearson does make concessions to local considerations. “We might make a hemline longer for the Middle East or a garment in smaller sizes for Japan, but we don’t compromise on our designs,” says Lydia Pearson, whose label, designed with Pamela Easton, is stocked in the Villa Moda department store chain in Dubai, Bahrain and Kuwait and in the Bus Stop boutique in Japan.

… the tough go shopping, so quality products in the right outlets should help designers through the downturn, write Georgina Safe and John Stapleton

YOU know the fashion forecast is for bad weather when British Vogue advises recycling your old clothes rather than buying new ones.The bellwether of which $2000 Balenciaga bag to carry and which $3000 Balmain dress to wear, British Vogue this month tempered its conspicuous consumption advocacy with the story “Buried Treasure: Rediscover your wardrobe gems”.

“It takes a credit crunch to re-evaluate your wardrobe,” the magazine proclaimed, advising its readers to fight economic adversity in old season Prada rather than the label’s newest crinkly parkas (although they are very Wall Street banker bum chic).

As with most fashion trends, US Vogue editor Anna Wintour is ahead of the curve, having been spotted in the same Carolina Herrera floral print shift no fewer than three times in one week.

If even Wintour is reusing her wardrobe, it’s a fair indication the credit crunch is affecting the designer clothing business in no small way.

In the US the effect on the apparel business has been severe.

“This is a tough one. This is maybe the worst I’ve ever seen,” says Ron Frasch, president and chief merchandising officer of the up-market US department store chain Saks. “Everybody is in a struggle right now. It’s a very, very difficult moment.”

Frasch says his buyers are walking a tightrope between selecting products with a strong perceived added value and steering away from those that scream conspicuous consumption, which may not feel appropriate in six months.

“Honestly, we don’t know,” he says. “It’s all a big guessing game, obviously.” He predicts large, established brands will ride out theeconomic storm, but younger designers may not survive.

“It’s really tough to add new brands right now,” Frasch says. “I feel badly for a lot of these small brands because they look to theSakses and the Neimans and the Nordstroms of the world as a launching location.”

Sydney designer Kit Willow Podgornik looked to the US to launch her label internationally when she made her New York Fashion Week debut in 2005 and has shown there each year since.

“My god, it’s so much tougher now, they are all freaking out,” says Podgornik of US buyers’ mindset. “They are only picking the best price pointed and the easiest fits, they are not taking any risks on the buy as they want 85per cent sell-through.

“They are dropping brands that don’t sell, they don’t care about innovation or the brand name, they are just looking to meet their budgets.”

Podgornik is one of several Australian designers reassessing their traditional focus on the US for export sales in light of the country’s credit crisis. Some designers are changing their direction to pursue domestic growth more aggressively, while others are courting new international powerhouse markets such as the Middle East, China and Russia. Podgornik and Nicky and Simone Zimmermann, who run the swimwear label Zimmermann, are focusing on the former.

“In Australia I think the situation is still more fear than reality,” Podgornik says.

“Our shop in Paddington is not feeling any economic downturn, we are still recording big increases every month. We want to keep building our relationships with key retailers internationally, but Australia is the focus for now because we have more control over thedomestic market.”

Zimmermann is investing in its creative capital as a means of riding out the toughtimes.

“We’re investing heavily in our creative process, providing support to the design team in terms of personnel and pattern-making, and providing travel and other resources for the designers,” Simone Zimmermann says. “We are a luxury Australian product.

“When women buy (our designs) it’s on an emotional level, so if we give our customers the best and most individual designs they buy them despite the economic environment.”

Sydney menswear designer Fernando Frisoni is looking farther afield, courting the new economic players such as Russia, China andthe Middle East, which he says offer more opportunities than the beleaguered retail environment in the US.

“America is a saturated market from my point of view,” he says. “It’s a very competitive place with thousands of emerging designers trying tobreak into that market, but in Russia andDubai there is a lot more money and room to move.”

While Frisoni says he has not tweaked his designs for overseas markets — “it’s more likely to be the other way around, that I would change the designs for the Australian market” — Brisbane label Easton Pearson does make concessions to local considerations. “We might make a hemline longer for the Middle East or a garment in smaller sizes for Japan, but we don’t compromise on our designs,” says Lydia Pearson, whose label, designed with Pamela Easton, is stocked in the Villa Moda department store chain in Dubai, Bahrain and Kuwait and in the Bus Stop boutique in Japan.

What Frisoni and Easton Pearson agree on is that the appetite for designer fashions in these relatively new markets continues apace despite the economic slowdown. “They want luxury and quality, and they are willing to pay for it,” Frisoni says.

On a buying trip to Sydney last week, Moscow boutique owner Rosa Kamenev, who stocks Frisoni’s label, said her customers included “the wives of millionaires, the mistresses of millionaires, gallery owners, actors and wealthy foreigners. The people who buy our clothes aren’t affected (by the economic downturn).”

For a label to be stocked in her store Cara&Co, Kamenev says: “The quality must correspond to the price point. Some Australiandesigners are a little too expensive, they think of themselves as artists, but they are unknown entities when they enter the Russian market so they need to price themselves with room to grow.”

Despite the doom and gloom in the US and Australia, Podgornik agrees that “if you have the right product at the right price, people are still buying. There are still a lot of women with a lot of money who want beautiful clothes and can afford them. If they see value and they feel great in it, they’ll buy it.”

While some fashion retail businesses are experiencing downturns, others selling designer clothes, jewellery and luxury personal items say they have never been so busy.

Narelle Kennedy, chief executive of the Australian Business Foundation, who was out shopping for jewellery last weekend, says: “You need luxuries and treats when times are tough. It is a normal psychological response.”

Westfield is banking on such a psychological response big-time with the opening last week of its $600 million shopping centre in Doncaster in Melbourne’s east.

A butler, valet parking and fashion stylists are among the luxury services offered in the centre, which includes a gourmet fresh food market, Gold Class cinemas and designer retail outlets for labels such as Bally, Max Mara, Carla Zampatti and Ralph Lauren.

But is it really the time for such excess?

“The offer matches the profile of the customers using the centre, who are quite affluent, about 12 to 20 per cent above theMelbourne income average, so even in today’s economic climate the services will be well used,” says Westfield’s Australia and New Zealand managing director Bob Jordan.

Much of the planning for the centre was done long before the present financial turmoil, and Jordan is confident the timing of its opening will not affect its success.

“Consumer confidence is down at the moment, if you talk to any retailer they are expecting their retail sales will be steady at best,” Jordan says.

“I’ve seen a few of these (economic downturns) and the implication for all of us is that we have to work a little harder, but generally if you’re in a good centre and the basics are right, you should be able to trade through this. We’re expecting Doncaster will trade very well and at this stage we have no reason to think otherwise.”

Credit: Georgina Safe, John Stapleton